Impacts of Disasters in Conflict Settings: Evidence from Mozambique and Nigeria

This paper estimates the differentiated economic impact of natural hazard-related disasters (the specific disasters and climate shocks studied here being floods) when they occur in conflict versus non-conflict affected areas.

Existing literature shows that disasters and climate shocks can cause significant distress to countries and people on an institutional and household level. However, assumptions are made that their impact tends to be larger in conflict-affected areas, with little evidence available on the differentiated extent of these damages.

This paper investigates whether, and to what extent, the presence of conflicts has amplified the impacts of floods on economic activity and people, and hampered recovery. The paper applies a “top-down” approach to estimating the differential impacts of disasters and climate shocks between conflict and non-conflict affected areas using satellite-derived imagery of nightlight radiance as a proxy for economic activity, along with geospatial footprints of floods. The analysis considers two case studies: the 2019 tropical cyclones Idai and Kenneth and subsequent floods in Mozambique, and the July 2022 floods in Nigeria.

Using difference-in-difference estimations, the analysis finds that there are significant differences in disaster and climate shock impacts and recovery between conflict and non-conflict affected areas. Particularly, there is a greater decline in economic activity and a longer recovery time in conflict affected areas, as proxied by the greater change in the intensity of nightlight radiance.