Syria economic monitor, summer 2023: The economic aftershocks of large earthquakes

Using novel data sources, this Syria economic monitor analyzes what happens to a conflict-affected economy in the months following a large disaster. Twelve years into a devastating civil war, a one-in-two-century earthquake devastated northwestern Syria.

According to the World Bank’s Syria Earthquake 2023 RDNA, the disaster caused US$3.7 billion in physical damage across the six most-affected governorates, with additional losses of US$1.5 billion in 2023 alone. The total cost of US$5.2 billion is equal to about 10 percent of Syria’s GDP, underscoring the magnitude of the destruction. Reconstruction and recovery needs are estimated at US$7.9 billion, consisting of immediate disaster-response needs of US$3.7 billion in the first 12 months and additional near-term recovery needs of US$4.2 billion over the next two years.