Developing Adaptation Strategy against Earthquake beneath Tokyo Metropolitan in a Context of Future Demographic Transition

Demographic transition has been widely discussed but rarely examined in the disaster research context. This paper is aimed to simulate population exposure and disaster resilience for developing adaptation strategies against the Earthquake beneath Tokyo Metropolitan. Conducting mesh-based population estimation in cohort component analysis, we examine population exposure by transition in density, age and family structure.

Based the empirical studies of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake and the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake, this paper estimates disaster resilience transformation to visualize the impact of future demographic transition. Integrating seismicity, population exposure and disaster resilience, this paper suggest business continuity planning and community capability reinforcement as adaptation strategies.