Recovery under consecutive disasters: how recovery dynamics shape societal resilience

The paper explores the concept of consecutive disasters, defined as multiple disasters occurring before recovery from a prior event is complete. It argues that such events can produce non-linear and compounding impacts that exceed the sum of individual disasters. The authors examine how recovery processes influence societal resilience across four interconnected pillars: human settlements, human health, economic systems, and socio-political systems.

The study shows that incomplete or delayed recovery can increase vulnerability, create feedback loops, and push societies toward negative tipping points. For example, displacement, weakened institutions, economic disruption, and political instability may intensify risks during subsequent disasters. The paper also discusses maladaptation and “asynergies,” where rebuilding efforts focused on one hazard may unintentionally increase vulnerability to others.

At the same time, the authors emphasize that consecutive disasters can create opportunities for learning, institutional reform, and improved preparedness. They advocate for a long-term, multi-hazard disaster risk reduction approach, proactive and equitable recovery financing, and integrated planning across sectors. The paper concludes that recovery should be treated as a central and dynamic component of disaster risk management.