The long-run socio-economic consequences of a large disaster: The 1995 earthquake in Kobe

PLoS ONE 10(10): e0138714. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138714:

This paper presents the quantification of the "permanent" socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades.

Three important empirical patterns emerge from the study: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.