Residential preference transitions of disaster victims: A case using three-wave panel data in Mashiki following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan

This study aims to examine the transition of victims’ residential preferences in Mashiki, Japan, post the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. The Japanese government supplies post-disaster public housing (PDPH) to victims who are unable to rebuild homes damaged by a disaster. The efficient supply of PDPH requires an accurate prediction of housing demand, based on survey results. However, non-negligible households often change their residential preferences from the initial survey, and these changes make the demand prediction difficult. The study utilizes a three-wave panel data analysis comprising two sets of household survey data and the applicant data for PDPH to investigate disaster victim behavior with greater accuracy and provide a predictive tool for disaster management.

The results indicate that households that initially preferred “rebuilding/repairing their homes” or “relocating to another place,” had young householders, did not live in post-disaster temporary housing, and had a high annual income tended to cancel moving into PDPH. These results can be instrumental in predicting the transition of residential preferences in future disasters. This study can establish patterns that, in turn, would help local governments predict the demand of PDPH provided as a form of disaster relief.